The overall recovery of the world economy is fragile and weak

Abstract In the past 2013, the world economy was high and low, the economic recovery of the United States and Japan was slow and unbalanced, the European sovereign debt crisis was coming to an end, but the economic recovery was still not improving, and the economic growth of emerging economies was slowing down. International authorities and experts and scholars believe that...
In the past 2013, the world economy was high and low, the US and Japan’s economic recovery was slow and unbalanced, the European sovereign debt crisis was coming to an end, but the economic recovery was not improving, and the economic growth of emerging economies was slowing down. International authorities and experts and scholars believe that although the world economy has generally entered a recovery phase, there are still many uncertainties and uncertainties and risks in the growth prospects. It is still uncertain whether new sources of growth are needed, and the recovery process in countries and regions is not Once and complicated, the overall recovery is fragile and weak. In this regard, countries should not be taken lightly, should be highly vigilant, pay close attention to the trend.

Data and analysis from international authorities such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund show that the world economy is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2013, significantly lower than previous forecasts. According to the World Economic Outlook report released by the IMF on October 7, the US economy grew by 1.2% in 2013, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. The Eurozone is still difficult to get rid of negative growth throughout the year. It is expected that the GDP growth rate of the Eurozone will fall from -0.6% in the previous year to -0.4% in 2013. Japan has received some results under the stimulus of the so-called "Abenomics". Achieve 2.0% growth.

In 2013, developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and Europe achieved recovery and growth in order to emerge from recession. While maintaining ultra-low or low interest rates, most of them adopted a loose or ultra-loose monetary policy, although the Fed announced on December 19th that it was 2014. Since January, the monthly asset reduction plan has been reduced by 10 billion US dollars, but the scale is small. From the original monthly total of 85 billion US dollars to 75 billion US dollars, it is only a small step to withdraw, and its asset purchase plan will continue. It will take a while to finish. The Bank of Japan implemented a massive quantitative easing policy to stimulate the economy, but did not fundamentally overcome the structural problems of the Japanese economy. At the same time, Japan’s monetary policy has continually accumulated huge government debts, laying a lot of serious hidden dangers for the mid- and long-term Japanese economic trends. The European Central Bank relies mainly on lowering interest rates to stimulate economic recovery, while also considering expanding the money supply when necessary.

Under the loose monetary policy of the United States, Japan and Europe, the US economy is in a slow and moderate growth. Although Japan’s economic growth in 2013 is obvious, it lacks stamina. In particular, Japan’s consumption tax will increase in April 2014, and the economy is likely to fall sharply and even fall into Negative growth. The EU economy continues to be sluggish under the influence of the tightening fiscal policy, and the euro zone economy is even worse. It is estimated that the US economic growth rate may reach 2.6% in 2014, the EU will increase by 1.5% from 2014 to 2015, and Japan will increase by about 1.5% from 2014 to 2015.

Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, emerging economies have become the “most important engine” for promoting world economic growth. However, under the external adverse environment, the global economic recession caused by the international financial crisis has begun to lag in developing countries and emerging countries. The economy has shown that the economic growth rate has slowed down or even declined. The GDP growth rate has dropped from 7.5% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2011. It is expected to fall to 4.5% in 2013. China is the world's largest emerging economy, 2013. In the first half of the year, GDP reached 24.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. It is expected that China will grow by about 7.5% for the whole year and continue to maintain the title of “the fastest growing country in the world”, making a significant impact on the recovery of the world economy and returning to growth. Contribute.

In 2013, developing countries and emerging economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America worked hard to resist external measures through macroeconomic policy adjustments and structural reforms, looser monetary policies, infrastructure construction, expanding domestic demand, attracting investment, and strengthening economic and trade cooperation. Negative shocks and struggling to maintain steady growth have played a positive role in promoting world economic recovery and growth.

First of all, the Asian economy, including ASEAN, has maintained a good momentum of rapid growth and overall progress in recent years, supported by factors such as the stability of the macroeconomic situation, the mutual support of investment and trade, the vigorous development of the service industry and the strong domestic demand. The biggest highlight of the non-Lat area. It is estimated that the overall GDP growth in Asia in 2013 will reach 6.6%, slightly higher than 6.0% in 2012. In 2014, East Asia can maintain growth of around 6%.

Second, the African economy has maintained a steady growth under the pressure of weak economic recovery in the West and slowing growth in emerging markets, but the growth rate has slowed slightly. It is expected that the economic growth rate will be 4.8% in 2013 and 5% in 2014. 5.3%. Among them, the economy of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to achieve 6% growth in 2014.

Third, due to the continuous deterioration of the external environment, Latin American economic growth continued to slow down in 2013. The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund shows that Latin America’s GDP grew by only 2.7% in 2013, continuing the growth slowdown since 2011 and becoming global growth. Slower developing regions. However, with the deepening of adjustment and reform, the economic fundamentals have gradually improved. According to the IMF, Latin America's GDP will increase by 3.1% in 2014, which will become the “turning point” for Latin America's economic recovery. This will usher in another new growth cycle.

Looking ahead, the report from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said that the world economy is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015.

Obviously, the world economic growth will move forward in the next two years. After experiencing recession and downturn, economic growth in developed countries will continue to climb hard; developing countries and emerging economies are strengthening macroeconomic regulation, structural adjustment and external environmental improvement. Next, it is also expected to achieve significant growth. However, the global economy will still face some uncertainties and downside risks. In addition to the risks of the European debt crisis and the US fiscal problems, whether the central banks of major developed countries, especially the Fed, can finally withdraw from the quantitative easing policy will become another major risk facing the world economy in the next two years.

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