China's foreign trade: must face the "eight keywords"

Abstract When the foreign trade fell by 3.8% in the first quarter and the “double down” data of foreign trade in April, China’s foreign trade will be intertwined with concerns and anxiety. Despite the difficult situation, as a l...
When the foreign trade fell by 3.8% in the first quarter and the “double down” data of foreign trade in April, China’s foreign trade will be intertwined with concerns and anxiety. Despite the difficult situation, as one of the “troikas” that drive the Chinese economy, foreign trade cannot stall. To achieve a warmer pace and maintain growth, China's foreign trade must read the "eight keywords."

Warmer keywords: "promoting, stabilizing, new, eliminating"

The latest data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of China's total import and export value has achieved positive growth in the second quarter, especially in May and June, the growth rate of import and export growth has been expanding month by month.

On July 10, at the press conference held by the State New Office, Zheng Yuesheng, the spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and the director of the General Statistics Department, summarized the reasons for the gradual recovery of imports and exports as “promoting, stabilizing, new and eliminating”. .

"Promoting" - is to promote. On May 4 this year, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Supporting the Stable Growth of Foreign Trade". Subsequently, the General Administration of Customs and other departments of the State Council successively issued supporting measures. Guangdong, Jiangsu and other major foreign trade provinces have formulated corresponding implementation plans. In the first quarter, the foreign trade export leading index was 41.6, and the average index in the second quarter reached 42.1, an increase of 0.5, indicating that the export trend is better.

"This phenomenon can explain that a series of policy measures of the central and local governments have already formed a joint force in the early stage, which has effectively boosted the confidence of foreign trade enterprises and the positive effects of supporting the steady growth of foreign trade are constantly emerging." Zheng Yuesheng pointed out.

"Steady" - the economic situation has stabilized. On July 3, JP Morgan Chase announced that the global PMI output index for the whole industry in the second quarter of this year was 54.1, which is the best level since the first quarter of 2011. These data show that the global economy is experiencing a sustained recovery and the external demand for China's foreign trade will be further improved.

"New" - Some new types of trade development and speed-up have become a new bright spot to enhance China's opening up. Since the end of 2012, the General Administration of Customs has launched pilot services for cross-border e-commerce in five cities; on October 1, 2013, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was officially in operation; in addition, China actively participated in the construction of high-standard free trade zones. To speed up the negotiation of the FTA; the strategic concept of building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road has received positive response from the international community.

"Cancel" - From January to April last year, China's foreign trade import and export base was relatively high, resulting in a year-on-year negative growth in China's imports and exports. Since the end of April, with the disappearance of these high bases, China's import and export growth rate has achieved positive growth in May and June.

New trend observations: How far is the 7.5% growth target for foreign trade?

What kind of trajectory will foreign trade come out in the second half of the year? Can the 7.5% foreign trade growth target be achieved in the whole year?

"We expect the growth rate of foreign trade import and export in the third quarter of this year to be further accelerated than in the second quarter." Zheng Yuesheng told reporters.

On June 10, the World Bank released the Global Economic Outlook report. It is expected that the global economy will gradually accelerate in the second half of this year. The annual growth rate will reach 2.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over 2013.

Since the beginning of this year, China has steadily promoted the reform of the exchange rate marketization. Under the premise of keeping the reasonable balance of the RMB exchange rate basically stable, it has expanded the floating range of the RMB exchange rate in an orderly manner and enhanced the flexibility of the two-way floating of the RMB exchange rate. In particular, the expectation of a unilateral appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been broken, and the exchange rate pressure of export enterprises has also been released.

Zheng Yuesheng said that in recent months, from the network survey of export enterprises, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the increase in exchange rate costs is falling. In the same period, export companies also reflected that enterprises most hope that the RMB exchange rate will remain relatively stable. China's export enterprises should actively use the exchange rate hedging tools to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and enhance the competitiveness of China's foreign trade exports.

The four positive and positive factors of promotion, stability, newness and elimination are expected to play a further role in the second half of the year. The trend of foreign trade stabilization will be further consolidated. It is expected that the growth rate of imports and exports in the second half of this year will be significantly higher than that of the first half. At the same time, we must also see that foreign trade is still facing a severe and complicated situation. To complete the expected growth target of 7.5% for the whole year, the task is still very arduous." Zheng Yuesheng stressed.

Must face: "turn, return, weak, friction"

Zheng Yuesheng also used four words to summarize the unfavorable factors affecting the development of China's foreign trade import and export in the second half of the year.

“Transfer” – traditional manufacturing, especially labor-intensive goods, is accelerating the transfer to neighboring countries such as Southeast Asia. China's labor-intensive products continue to decline in major market shares such as Europe, the United States and Japan. In the first quarter of this year, the share of China's textile and other seven categories of labor-intensive goods in the US market fell by 0.6 percentage points, and fell by 0.9 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points respectively in the EU and Japan.

“Back” – The data shows that from January to May this year, the actual use of foreign capital in China’s manufacturing industry was US$17.4 billion, a decrease of 16.5%. At the same time, the analysis report of the International Monetary Fund pointed out that the competitiveness of the US dollar exchange rate, the cheap energy brought by the shale gas revolution, and the gap in labor costs of emerging economies have narrowed, driving the recovery of US manufacturing. The return of manufacturing in developed countries and the cooling of foreign investment will have a certain impact on China's related industries and foreign trade.

“Weak” – the continuous increase in production cost factors such as labor has weakened the competitiveness of China’s export products. In June this year, the General Administration of Customs survey of nearly 2,000 companies showed that 61% of enterprises believe that the current comprehensive cost of exports is increasing year-on-year, and 65.2% of enterprises report that the cost of labor is increasing.

"Mo" - the increase in trade friction has inhibited the further expansion of my export space. The current global trade protectionism continues to rise and trade restrictions have increased. Since 2014, global trade protectionism has become increasingly fierce. In May, the United States had as many as six trade relief actions against Chinese exports. On May 14, the European Union made an arbitration ruling to impose anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on the original Chinese solar glass.

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