April economic data announced on the 10th, 6 institutions asserted that the economy bottomed out
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The results show that six institutional economists have reached a consensus on the judgment that China's economy has bottomed out, and that macro data will usher in a long-term growth trend; however, some indicators may face fluctuations in the process of destocking. In general, market indicators are picking up faster than the real economy.
Forecast Â· CPI
After deducting the hikes or the positive values, most economists believe that the CPI decline in April will be slightly expanded. The year-on-year increase in CPI in March was negative 1.2%.
And for the forecast of April CPI growth, Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, is the most pessimistic in the scope of this report, with a forecast of minus 1.7%. Wang Qing believes that CPI will still be pulled down by food prices in April, so the pressure of deflation will not ease immediately. But he also admitted that the situation of deteriorating prices in the future will not appear again. Since April, last year's year-on-year base has also begun to decline, so the deflationary pressure will ease in the next few months.
However, the views of the two domestic financial institutions are much more CPI. He Zhicheng, a senior economist at the Agricultural Bank of China, believes that the CPI will start to rise in April, and the year-on-year growth will shrink to minus 1%. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, predicted a median negative of 1.1%, and he believes that if the impact of last year's hikes is removed, CPI will be growing, and the actual price increase will remain at around 0.8%. â€œPrice is the most responsive indicator of market supply and demand, so this data will be more sensitive to the increase in demand.â€ Lian Ping said.
The median forecast of CPI growth rate of other institutions remained at -1.4%~-1.2%.
The analysis perspectives are quite different. Relatively most institutions have a stable 1% forecast for the April CPI growth rate, and the organization's disagreement with PPI is relatively obvious.
The survey shows that Morgan Stanley, UBS Securities, and Shenyin Wanguo's forecasts are more pessimistic, and that the PPI decline will continue to expand. Among them, Shenyin Wanguo predicted that the PPI will fall by 7.1% in April.
Agricultural Bank, Industrial Bank and Bank of Communications believe that the increase in PPI in April will be flat or slightly higher than in March. He Zhicheng believes that the PPI will decrease to less than 5% in April. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of the Industrial Bank's fund operations center, predicted that the median value of the data was negative 5.7%. Lian Ping said that the data will be the same as in March.
It is reported that the reason for the big differences in this forecast is that the institutions have different perspectives on the prices of industrial products in the domestic market and international commodity prices.
Li Huiyong, chief macro analyst of Shenyin Wanguo, believes that since March, the prices of some industrial products led by steel have declined again, and these indicators will lead the PPI.
The opposite view is that after entering March, international commodity prices began to rebound from the low level, and the rebound rate is faster, which will bring the PPI out of the muddy decline. Lianping further pointed out that "from April, the price increase of various industrial products such as copper has become more and more obvious. Not only will the year-on-year decline shrink, but the PPI will increase more clearly after April."
Forecasts and Solid Investment Government investment continues to grow. Based on the general perception of the pace of economic recovery, the six institutions' forecasts for fixed asset investment growth in April are very consistent.
From January to March this year, China's fixed asset investment rate reached 28.6%. For this value in April, the agency's general forecast is higher than the first quarter. Among them, Shenyin Wanguo's forecast is the most optimistic, and the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment may be as high as 30.6%. The predicted value of the remaining five institutions also remained at 28.6% to 30%.
The gradual implementation of government investment projects is clearly a strong support for this indicator to be optimistic expectations. In this regard, Lian Ping pointed out that the high growth of solid investment is a big trend. With the construction of the central fiscal stimulus policy, starting from April, local projects have begun to be launched, so fixed asset investment will certainly continue to rise.
Among them, the proportion of real estate investment is likely to expand. "The enthusiasm from the developers to get the land can be seen." Lian Ping said, "Now, developers have changed from retreating to land acquisition, the relief of the capital chain, and the reduction of backlog of housing stocks will bring real estate developers Come to invest in power."
Forecasting Â· Industry is more difficult to be optimistic The volatility of industrial added value in April has become the common point predicted by the survey institutions. In March, China's industrial added value growth rate rose sharply from 8.8% in February to 8.3%. However, summing up the forecast results for April, most organizations believe that the data will fall back.
The most optimistic attitude comes from the Agricultural Bank. He Zhicheng said, "The industrial added value will be roughly the same as in March, and the best situation is only a slight increase."
The predictions of Morgan Stanley and Bank of Communications are pessimistic, and the data growth rate will drop to 7%.
The reason for the bearishness of the data by the integrated institutions was mainly due to the decline in power generation data in April. â€œAs can be seen from the power generation, most companies are still in the process of destocking.â€ Lian Ping said, â€œMaybe due to the increase in demand and the strengthening of destocking, commodity prices will show a warming trend, but some companies produce Maybe not at all."
Therefore, the organization believes that the trend of industrial added value growth will show a volatility process, and the future destocking process will also show a dynamic trend.
"In the mid-term and long-term growth trend of industrial added value, in the short term, due to the misjudgment of indicators such as price, some industrial stocks will further hoard, which will inevitably lead to the fall of the real economy indicators." Lianping further explained "In fact, the decision-making layer has begun to pay attention to this issue."
At the end of April, the increase in the capital ratio of fixed assets investment projects in the steel industry was considered a signal. Lian Ping believes that the main purpose of this move is not to limit investment in the steel industry, but it can play a role in raising the investment threshold and prompting the market to prudently invest.
ForecastsÂ·Retails and basic growth in the previous month have increased. In terms of consumption, six institutions forecast that the total growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April may be roughly the same as in March.
The Agricultural Bank believes that this data will increase by about 16%. The forecast range of other institutions is also fluctuating around 15%. Among them, the bank's chief economist Wang Tao's forecast is 14%, Morgan Stanley believes that the data will show a growth rate of 15.2%, Shenyin Wanguo said there will be a 14.9% increase.
UBS Securities pointed out that this year's urban consumption will show a moderate slowdown, but in the government's efforts to curb deflation, urban consumption is still flexible; but rural consumption may be affected by the rising unemployment rate to a large extent. .
"China's consumption will not suddenly increase in the short term, and the growth rate will generally stabilize at the current level." Lian Ping pointed out that "and a series of measures to promote consumption based on short-term stimulus targets will not give to the total consumption. The expansion brings too much space."
ForecastÂ·Credit New loan size is about 500 billion. Following the 1.89 trillion yuan of credit data in March, most institutions believe that the new credit scale in April will remain around 500 billion. Morgan Stanley's forecast is 458.3 billion, the Agricultural Bank believes it will reach the level of 400-500 billion, while the Bank of Communications's forecast is slightly optimistic, expected to reach 500-600 billion.
â€œThere is no end-of-quarter assessment indicator, and the loan growth pressure will be alleviated in April.â€ Lian Ping pointed out that the recent open market operations of the central bank have played a certain role in regulating the financing of bills. In addition, the net withdrawal of open market operations for several weeks has caused the excessive easing of liquidity in the money market to shrink. As a result, interest rates in the money market have risen, leading to a contraction in the scale of bill financing. â€œThe size of the April bill will not exceed 30% of the total credit. The reduction in the amount of bills will lower the overall credit supply.â€
However, he further pointed out that starting from May, the amount of new credit will be re-emerged. "There will be several months of fluctuations in the future. But the volatility will gradually level. It will eventually remain at the balance of 300 billion to 500 billion." Lian Ping said.
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