Economics and geopolitics push the market to increase international oil prices on the 10th

The New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil ** ended its three-day losing streak. International oil prices rebounded on Tuesday, driven by the general rise in global stock markets. At the same time, the conflict between the West and Iran may be intensified, and the oil market will be supported. At Tuesday's close, the New York Mercantile Exchange's light sweet crude oil in February ** settled at $102.24 a barrel, up $0.93 from the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil at ***** settlement price of $113.28 a barrel. , rose 0.83 US dollars; New York heating oil in February ** 310.14 cents per gallon, up 2.84 cents; RBOB gasoline in February ** 294.1 cents per gallon, down 7.00 cents; London Intercontinental Exchange in January diesel ** per Ton 974 US dollars, up 15.00 US dollars.

According to the settlement price of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the "3-2-1" profit of three barrels of crude oil refined into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil was $23.528 per barrel on Tuesday, up by $4.564 over the previous trading day.

The speech of the Chinese premier boosted market confidence. The Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes rose for two consecutive days, which led to the general rise in global stock markets. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.7% on Tuesday to the highest close in nearly a month. At the same time, the inspiring comments from U.S. companies released on Tuesday that European stocks hit a closing week high. The US Small Business Optimism Index rose for the fourth consecutive month in December. US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, and the Dow hit a new high since July last year.

Reuters quoted informed sources as saying that Iran had launched a 20% enrichment program for underground facilities in Fordow. Iran had previously conducted a concentration campaign in Natanz. The International Energy Agency also published the news on its website. Iran’s move may accelerate the strict sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States and France. The U.S. government demanded that Iran stop its enrichment activities, saying that Iran's enrichment would violate the UN agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The EU has in principle agreed to ban the import of Iranian oil. On January 23, EU officials will hold a meeting to discuss the Iranian crude oil export embargo, which is one week ahead of schedule. The Western world will impose tougher sanctions on Iran, which may make Japan reduce its oil imports from Iran. Japan has requested Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase their oil supply.

Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Director of the US Energy Information Agency, said that it is too early to predict the impact of the European Union’s embargo on Iran’s oil exports.

According to data from the American Petroleum Institute, last week, US crude oil and refined oil stocks all increased. US crude oil inventories increased by 397,000 barrels from the previous week; gasoline inventories rose by 1.892 million barrels; distillate oil stocks increased by 846,000 barrels. The market is waiting for the oil inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration. The average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks increased by 1.9 million barrels. Reuters survey showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 800,000 barrels, distillate stocks increased by 2 million barrels, and gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration issued the "Desert Energy Outlook" and lowered its oil demand forecast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.27 million barrels in the year-on-year in 2012; global oil demand will be 90.85 million barrels in 2013, an increase of 1.47 million barrels compared to 2012.

This year, the average price of light crude oil in the United States may exceed the historical record. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that in 2012, the average light low* crude oil in the United States will be US$100.25/barrel, up by US$2.25 from the previous forecast; and the average US$103.73 per barrel in 2013 is forecast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's prediction is based on the assumption that US GDP grew by 1.8% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013, and that global GDP increased by 2.9% in 2012 and 3.8% in 2013.

With the improvement of US economic data, the US Energy Information Administration believes that while OECD oil demand is declining, US oil demand may increase by 0.5% in 2012. In 2011, US oil demand decreased by 1.6%.

According to the latest news, the package price of the organization, calculated from the weighted average price of 12 member countries of OPEC on January 9, was US$112.51 per barrel, up by US$0.28 over the previous trading day.

On Tuesday, the Asian benchmark Dubai crude oil spot market fell behind Western crude oil prices. The spot price of Dubai crude oil delivered in March 2012 was US$109.59 per barrel, which was a decrease of US$0.41 from the previous trading day. The March Brent/Dubai exchange is now trading at a price of $3.21; March WTI/Dubai is trading at a current exchange price of $6.8.

Singapore's 95th spot price of gasoline on Tuesday was estimated at US$124.70 per barrel, up by US$0.90 from the previous session. Singapore's January diesel oil price was $129.45 a barrel on Monday, up $0.85 from the previous day.

On Tuesday (January 10), the Shanghai ** Exchange's fuel oil ** fell overall, trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. In February 2012, the settlement price was 5021 yuan per ton, which was 184 yuan lower than the settlement price in the previous trading day. April 2012** No transaction. In March 2012, the trading activity was active, the opening price was 5,160 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 18 hands, and the open interest was 908 lots; it decreased by 2 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the closing price in the afternoon was 5,154 yuan per tonne; the settlement price was 5,155 yuan per ton. Compared with the previous trading day, the settlement price fell by 1 yuan, and the trading range was 5150-5160 yuan per ton.

On Tuesday (January 10), the Tokyo Commodity Exchange crude oil and refined oil ** rose. November crude oil ** settled at 53,820 yen per cubic meter, up 340 yen from the previous trading day, volume 850 lots; December gasoline ** closed at 64,489 yen per cubic meter, compared with the previous day's settlement price The price rose 610 yen, and the trading volume was 533 hands. In December, the settlement price of kerosene ** was 69,210 yen per cubic meter, which was 250 yen higher than the previous day's settlement price, and the trading volume was 355 lots. The diesel price was settled in December. At ¥67,900 per cubic meter, it rose by 400 yen from the previous trading day with 10 lots.

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